Independence for Bavaria?

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It’s no secret that, what with one thing and another,

my home country of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

is not as united as it once was.

In particular Scotland made a bid for independence a few years ago,

and very nearly succeeded — and is hoping to try again.

So, one question that gets asked from time to time is this:

is there anything similar anywhere in Germany?

Could a part of Germany break away

and become an independent sovereign nation state in its own right?

Well, indeed there is.

Germany is a federation of 16 states,

and in about half of them there is a fair amount of support for the idea of separatism.

Top of the list is Bavaria,

where, according to a survey conducted in 2017,

about a third of the population would be in favour of independence.

Could it happen?

Legally, probably.

There isn’t a provision for it in the Basic Law, but neither is there a ban on it.

However, it might be difficult:

In 2016, the Federal Constitutional Court refused to grant permission for a referendum

on the rather mysterious grounds that the states are not “masters of the Basic Law”.

Okay, but what are the arguments for independence?

Well, first of all, Bavaria is big.

It is bigger in terms of both land area and population size

than, for example, Austria or Belgium.

If those countries can survive as independent nation states, then why can’t Bavaria?

Second, it’s wealthy.

It has an annual GDP of over $500 billion.

The problem is that as things stand now it doesn’t all stay in Bavaria.

The way Germany is set up, part of the wealth generated by the states is redistributed,

effectively meaning that the wealthiest states subsidize the poorer states.

Bavaria, being so economically successful, consistently loses out here.

In 2017, nearly 6 billion euros left Bavaria to support other states.

That’s more the half the total amount of money that is redistributed across the whole of Germany.

However, things are not quite that simple.

Were Bavaria to gain independence,

there’s no guarantee that it would instantly become €6 billion richer.

First, much of that wealth is generated by big industrial giants,