Is The World Getting More Violent?

10 years ago, in 2014,

we asked if war was over.

Based on long-term trends in the last century,

it seemed violent conflict was on the decline

and the world more peaceful than ever.

Our video began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine

and the war between Hamas and Israel.

And, well, a decade later

we could start this video exactly the same way.

But is the world as a whole more violent today?

In a nutshell, we made seven claims in 2014.

One, we have less conflict deaths than ever.

Two, there were almost no more wars between countries.

Three, democracies don't fight each other.

Four, borders are mostly fixed.

Five, most conflicts are in areas that were under foreign control,

either by colonial states or Soviet dictatorships.

Six, more civil wars are ending by diplomacy.

Seven, we're in the most peaceful period of history.

So, let's see how our video has held up.

First, let's get an overview of conflicts in the last decade.

Some of the deadliest conflicts that were glowing hot in 2014

have since ended or significantly cooled down.

The war in Afghanistan ended with the victory of the Taliban.

While the civil wars in Yemen and Libya are all still ongoing,

they turned mostly into stalemates.

The protostate of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has been wiped out

and, breaking news,

the rebels just won the war in Syria last week.

The extremely destructive civil war in South Sudan

ended in a fragile peace agreement

despite violence still flaring up in the devastated young country.

Sadly, the last decade saw a bunch of new conflicts erupt

or old unresolved issues turn violent.

One of the main claims of our video 10 years ago

was that wars today are not between countries,

and this is still largely true.

Civil wars are by far the most common type of state-based conflict in the world.

We wager that most of you have never heard about